There is a constant push-pull between mathematics and the human element of what’s practical and reasonable. As our society becomes more numbers and computer driven and thereby “optimized,” expect such battles to continue until a comfortable equilibrium can be achieved.
Person of Interest is a broadcast television show on CBS where a “machine” predicts a person most likely to die within 24-48 hours. Then, it’s up to a mercenary and a data scientist to find that person and help them escape their fate. I have taken the liberty of framing some components that could be part of such a project. Can you help discover more?
The article “The New Boss: Big Data” in Macleans – a Canadian publication – discusses the challenges for hiring professionals using machines to assist in the hiring process and coincidentally has a quote or two from me.
Probability is defined as the possibility, chance or odds of likelihood that a certain event or occurrence will take place now or in the future. In a world where business managers like to “know the odds”, how does probabilistic thinking (Frequentism and Bayesian) mesh with extreme events (i.e. Black Swans) that just cannot be predicted?
A rules based, structured decision making approach works for many occasions, especially when choices and outcomes are relatively well documented and repetitive. But an exclusive focus on following pre-determined business rules (even when business conditions change) is a recipe for financial disaster. Author Michael Lewis of Moneyball and The Big Short fame, has long critiqued decisions made by government…