Two noted economists, Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt, recently had their findings on country debt to GDP ratios questioned, as it was discovered an Excel spreadsheet error led to some grave miscalculations. And while plenty of financial bloggers and economists took the opportunity to gloat over Rogoff and Reinhardt’s misfortune, there is a larger point…
The Tampa Bay Rays spend significantly less on payroll than some of the wealthier teams in Major League Baseball, but get results that are sometimes better than those that wildly overspend. Their success boils down to two things – understanding how to be a hedgehog, and continual application of statistics and analytics into daily processes.
Probability is defined as the possibility, chance or odds of likelihood that a certain event or occurrence will take place now or in the future. In a world where business managers like to “know the odds”, how does probabilistic thinking (Frequentism and Bayesian) mesh with extreme events (i.e. Black Swans) that just cannot be predicted?
Oakland A’s pitcher Kyle McCarthy gets the Moneyball “analytics” religion and takes his game to a whole new level.
Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” approach to developing and staffing a professional baseball team has come under intense scrutiny as long time major league scouts and analysts take delight in sub-par performances of the Oakland Athletics. Beane however seems undaunted in using statistical analysis to undercover market place inefficiencies. Indeed, it takes courage to solve problems in a whole new—perhaps heretical—manner. And while plenty of folks take pleasure in Beane’s recent comeuppance, there’s a good chance he’s already had the last laugh.