Entries tagged as ‘Forecasting and Modeling’
When forecasting in marketing, pay attention to dissent, especially when common knowledge or popular opinion says otherwise. More than a few CEOs and economists predicted the credit bubble of 2008 bursting in a big way and were mocked.
When you see opposing positions openly ridiculed, it’s time to consider the possibilities of those positions. If we believe that marketing has a role and responsibility in helping our companies develop sound, strong and robust business strategies, then we owe it to ourselves and our companies to pay attention to outliers.
Categories: Analytics · Forecasting and Modeling · Risk Management · decision making
Tagged: forecasting, Forecasting and Modeling, modeling, prediction, Risk Management
“Inventory is bad, inventory is evil,” finance and operations professors intone across business schools worldwide. And every B-school graduate knows companies should balance enough inventory to meet customer needs while accommodating shifting preferences. That said, companies face a paradox; holding too much inventory ties up valuable cash, but too little inventory is risky since some suppliers could lose their financial footing. In a global financial crisis, is inventory still evil?
Forecasting sales and inventory levels is probably one of the most difficult jobs of a product and/or supply chain manager as companies need to marry demand signals with supply. Adding more complexity to the mix is global supply chains that span weeks, multiple countries and sometimes oceans. Lots of hand-offs, tons of data to track, and lots of points for things to go wrong.
read more
Categories: Analytics · Forecasting and Modeling · Global Finance · Risk Management · Supply Chain Management
Tagged: Analytics, Forecasting and Modeling, information management, inventory, optimization, prediction, product, Risk Management, Supply Chain Management
Marketers of all stripes are often tasked with forecasting—sales for next quarter or year, inventory levels to meet demand, or marketing budget to meet corporate goals.
However, the process of forecasting is often rife with bias, data quality issues, mathematical error, and/or poor planning assumptions. While no forecasting technique is perfect, predictions can be drastically improved through a simple technique: pulling your anchor.
read more
Categories: Analytics · Forecasting and Modeling
Tagged: anchoring, bias, Forecasting and Modeling, modeling, prediction
